- Probability of Bernanke reappointment by 2 February: 90.3%
- Dow if Bernanke reappointed: 10,404
- Dow if Bernanke not reappointed: 11,755.6
Come on, traders. It's dead simple to put these prices into a little excel spreadsheet that spits out the conditional prices for the Dow. Looks like somebody bid up the price of US.BNKE.2FEB without making the simultaneous play against US.NOTBNKE.DOW . Time for me to short Bernanke's reappointment before 2 Feb while shorting the Dow in the case that he isn't reappointed. If he's reappointed, I take money from the Dow short; if he's not reappointed, I take money from the Bernanke short.